It Isn't What It Is: Diablog on a Non-Race

"Hillary still has a chance, if she can win big in the Pennsylvania primary."

REALITY:  Hillary hasn’t got a prayer.  She will go into the PA primary with a deficit of over 160 delegates, though the exact number varies depending on what source you use.  She could be a big favorite in PA and do really well.  How well?  She got 70% of the vote in Arkansas.  Other than that, her high water mark has been 58% in Rhode Island.   But let’s assume she wins PA with by an astounding 60-40 margin – she will then gain 32 committed delegates (according to Slate.com’s Delegate Calculator) and still trail by about 130 pledged delegates.  Even if EVERY last PA voter goes for Clinton, and she wins the state 100%-0%, she will still trail by 3 or 4 delegates!

"But a big win in PA would turn the momentum.  If she wins big in PA, the whole country will start going for Hillary bigtime.  She could wind up winning other states where it seemed like she didn’t have a chance, like Oregon, and that will put her over the top."

REALITY: Er – not quite.  If we give Hillary 60% in PA, and in Oregon, and Puerto Rico, and Guam, and Montana, SD, IN, Guam, WV, KY, and even North Carolina (which we know is NOT going to happen!  With the recent ten-delegate shift in Iowa, Clinton will still trail by about 70 pledged delegates.

"Ah, but that leaves out Florida and Michigan!  Do-overs in those states are highly probable.  Those two alone represent 313 pledged delegates.  Big wins for Hillary in those two states will put her over the top."

REALITY: Actually, they won’t.  Again according to Slate.com, even if Hillary wins both do-overs by a 60-40 margin, she will only gain by about 61 delegates, still leaving her trailing in the race by about ten pledged delegates.

"So what’s ten delegates?  The superdelegates can then easily put her over the top!"

REALITY: Well, let’s first remember that the chances of Hillary being behind by only ten pledged delegates are tiny!  They rest on Hillary doing almost impossibly well in ALL of the remaining primaries.  The chances of Hillary getting even 55% in most of those states is small.  But let’s give her a 55-45 win in ALL those states.  She’ll then be trailing Obama by over 80 delegates – and a margin of over 80 delegates is huge!

"It’s big, but not necessarily big enough.  The superdelegates can step in and make up that difference, giving the nomination to Hillary.  They are especially likely to do this if they think Hillary has a better chance of winning the White House than Obama."

REALITY: Perhaps.  But they’d better have unassailable reasons for thinking that!  If some kind of scandal involving Obama is exposed, something not in evidence during most of the primary season but that now emerges to make his election highly unlikely, then yes, the superdelegates might be justified in overturning the will of the pledged delegates and the voters.  But if they act without such justification, they would not only guarantee a McCain victory, but also destroy the Democratic Party coalition for decades to come.  Black voters would, as the expression goes, stay away in droves in this year’s presidential election, in state contests, and in all future elections.  If someone really thinks that the superdelegates are going to take such actions other than for dire reasons, simply to satisfy the Clintons, they are out of touch with reality.

"But you admit – Hillary still could win under certain circumstances.  So she is completely justified in remaining in the race."    

REALITY: The circumstances under which Hillary could win – scandal, terrorist attack, disabling or lethal violence against Obama – are so dire that for Clinton to remain in the race in hopes that such events will occur is little short of despicable.  In fact, this has been the situation for many weeks now – since long before the March 4 contests.  Yet she has not only refused to concede, but has done her best to damage the Democratic Party’s chances for November.  There is only one reason for Hillary to remain in the race – to sufficiently damage the Party’s chances this November so that she can run against the incumbent McCain in 2012.  She can’t afford to wait till 2016 – she’d be 69 years old.  So her ambitions have to be fulfilled this election or next – and ambition is the dynamo in Hillary Clinton.  For her, everything else is irrelevant, even the damage done to her country by racial divisiveness.  She is now simply spitting in the soup.